Informal talks were held today between the leaders of Fine Gael and Labour to discuss the prospects for an alternative government after the next general election. The joint press statement issued by the two leaders is exceptionally bland and non-committal in terms of specific programmes or policies. The very brief statement contains a general criticism of the government;
The events of recent months have shown that they have lost energy, have run out of ideas and have failed to provide the Irish people with the sort of initiatives that are required to meet the challenges of our society-be it in childcare, anti-social behaviour, the care of our elderly or the problems in our health service.
In essence the position is that a failed government must give way to an alternative and that today's talks are are the first steps in delivering that alternative. So what can we glean from such slim pickings? In the first place one must situate the relationship between the two parties in terms of a competition-cooperation dynamic-it is not all one way or the other. It is also helpful to remind ourselves that in answer to the question how political parties in Western Europe make hard decisions, Irish parties always choose office over policy and votes.
Both parties need each other to achieve office. But the dynamics of our electoral system means that they are also in competition for votes and that the conventional wisdom is that the smaller party would lose out in any formal pre-election pact. So the sequencing or choreography of this courtship must be such that momentum continues to be generated while at the same time flexibility is maintained in terms of particular policy positions and numbers of candidates. So today's hoopla in a Dublin restaurant is just the ticket. It's a media event that has very little content. The only commitment is to hold more talks over the summer. Enda Kenny said the discussion had not touched on policy issues and while Pat Rabbitte acknowledged policy differences, they were in agreement on the big issues-"Ireland's economy is successful, its society less so".
So it seems that the chosen battle ground will be issues of social policy, and if economic policy is not emphasised so much, it will be a lot harder for Fianna Fáil to exploit potential divisions on issues like taxation. While the broad outline of an alternative government will be clear enough, there will be no detailed programme for government until after the election, the content of which would presumably reflect the balance of forces after the votes are counted. Fianna Fáil set the agenda for the 2002 campaign. I suspect that the battle for control over the agenda next year will be a more closely contested affair, with the media less inclined to take its cue from the Millbank-like media spin that emanated from Treasury Buildings last time.
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