Noel Whelan believes that the next election will be heavily influenced by the fact that the electorate will be measuring government competence "not on the macro issues that generated the boom but on the more day-to-day issues touching on delivery of public services and quality of life".
The middle class swing voter electorate, with their own comfort secured, will be demanding a more equal distribution of wealth and economic resources. The next few years will see an increasing concentration on the nature of our society rather than the nature of our economy.
The key point Whelan makes is that despite Bertie Ahern's careful makeover of Fianna Fáil after the exit of McCreevy, the subsequent cabinet reshuffle and "the Inchydoney repositioning", the party's polling numbers are falling again. Everything seems to have gone wrong again and the government's reputation for competence has been eroded in the light of nursing home charges, ongoing problems in the health sector, transport and airport policies and delays and cost overruns in the delivery of major infrastructural projects. This happens at a time when the opposition is seen to be putting in a much better performance. Whelan argues that the government's difficulties "are compounded by the fact that this appearance of incompetence in the delivery of public services is occurring at a time when the economy is doing so well".
Therefore a basically sound economy will not save the government if people take good economic conditions for granted and Whelan thinks that the government's competence will be judged on issues of public service delivery and quality of life-"conventional wisdom is now been turned on its head". So is a new conventional wisdom emerging that posits that the middle class swing voters who are economically secure will want to see an increasing emphasis on social issues? I would like to see if there is evidence in opinion polls for this position. Also, I'm not as confident that the economic prosperity is as secured and permanent as it is suggested. Alongside prosperity exits pockets of poverty and chronic insecurity. In the lead up to the next general election I will be on the lookout for further signs of this possible new conventional wisdom emerging in the media and whether political parties will respond accordingly. This can best be looked at in the context of agenda setting.
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