The text of the IRA statement is clearer and less ambiguous than we have come to expect and that is a good thing. The leadership has ordered an end to the armed campaign and that all IRA units are to dump arms. All volunteers have been instructed to assist "the development of purely political and democratic programmes through exclusively peaceful means" and "volunteers must not engage in any other activities whatsoever".
Does this mean the disbandment of the IRA? Not at all. It's inconceivable that all weapons will be decommissioned and it's likely that the organisation will retain some ability to arm itself. Some of the language used by P.O'Neill is instructive. It talks about "an unprecedented internal discussion and consultation process with IRA units and volunteers". This was carried out "in an honest and forthright way". The response was "very strong support". Note that it wasn't described as "overwhelming" or "unanimous" and it is reasonable to assume that some loyal cadres were probably worried about exposing themselves to the violence of loyalist paramilitaries. The fact that the "issue of the defence of nationalist and republican communities has been raised with us" would seem to strongly suggest this.
Quite apart from such possible coded assurances about a capacity to defend nationalist areas there is the issue of sheer criminality. Henry McDonald puts the matter thus:
With the quasi-military structure still extant, the ability to raise millions of pounds and euros for the republican movement's political wing remains. As has happened already in Dublin, the IRA has subcontracted most of its illegal fund raising activities to ordinary criminals who are "taxed" by republicans.
Perhaps the best comparison is with the Official IRA who, despite ceasing to be vested with any political role in the strategy developed by the organisation that became the Workers' Party, certainly never went away and tenaciously defended its turf in the few enclaves where it controlled the rackets. Armed conflict may be dropped from the political discourse of the republican movement but it would be absurd to pretend that the IRA will simply evolve into some kind of commemorative, old boys' organisation. As always the best place on the web to find lively informed comment is the redoubltable Slugger O'Toole.
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