Fine Gael, Party of Government

Fine Gael is being taken seriously again, mainly because the public now perceive the possibility of an alternative government consisting of themselves and Labour and, possibly, the Greens.  The over-the-top, intemperate attacks and derision of Bertie Ahern and other ministers about destroying jobs and raising taxes through the roof have only reminded the electorate that there is an alternative.  Mark Brennock's op-ed piece in The Irish Times makes the point that Fine Gael's policies and performance will be, as Enda Kenny says, "under scrutiny" as it becomes more electorally credible. 

It is striking how much alike each other are Fine Gael and its chief rival Fianna Fáil - not for the obvious reason of being right wing, pro capitalist, conservative or whatever.  What they most have in common is that they are first and foremost parties of government, that is they are only really relevant as office holders, actual or potential, existing solely to win elections.  Of course Fianna Fáil have been much more successful, probably because of their unique blend of nationalism and populism and their far superior levels of grass roots organisation. 

Fine Gael on the other hand has often been cast into the political wilderness.  Its long decline from 1932 when it lost office for the first time (although that was technically Cumann na nGaedheal) until it almost accidentally re-entered government in 1948 shows the electoral importance of office holding for that party.  It actually increased its vote in the 1951 election even though the inter-party coalition government lost the election.  When Garret Fitzgerald's coalition lost office in 1987, the party's vote declined at the two following elections.  The unexpected mid-parliament change of government in 1994 restored Fine Gael's electoral fortunes as its vote went up significantly in the 1997 poll.  In 2002 the Fine Gael vote crashed to a 50 year low because it was clear that there wasn't a ghost of a chance of being in government.  It was either going to be a Government victory or else a remade coalition of FF and Labour. 

So what's the point of this brief excursus into electoral history?  Well, I believe it might have be significant in terms of what kind of policies the alternative government in waiting might actually commit itself to.  We know already that there won't be any launch of a sweeping and detailed joint slate of policies in advance of the election campaign proper.  Instead there will be sporadic and exiguous dollops of policies here and there - enough to keep the media interested without giving to much ammunition to the Government.  Mark Brennock makes the point that on the really big issues, like taxation, Fine Gael and Labour would want to be be singing from the same hymn sheet. 

If it really wants to, Labour can be in the driving seat in terms of forming the policy of the next government on the key issues.  Brennock reports that Fine Gael insiders are prepared to trim policy for the sake of winning the next election and the party's position has shifted on issues like Social Partnership and abolishing the Groceries Order.  The promise of power has the effect of suppressing the party's natural conservative instincts.  The imperative of political survival will encourage greater flexibility in terms of policy and Labour should have the courage of its convictions and not simply agree to a blanket no tax increases stance.  What they should actually propose can be the subject of a future post.

Comments

[simon]

Labour tried its convictions last election with there little red card thingy and they had one of there worst elections. In ireland convictions don't matter Eddie Hobbes Or Hobbism where people want more services but less tax is the hymm sheet they need to sing from.

my tip for next government. Fianna Fail and labour coalition. With Howlin instead of rabbitte