The government is losing popularity and more voters would prefer an alternative government composed of Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Green Party over the current Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats coalition, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll. The opposition are preferred by 36% as opposed to 31% for the current coalition. About a fifth of the electorate want something different and 13% are indifferent or at least register no opinion. There is movement from government to opposition in terms of party support but it's not enough to be certain of casting Fianna Fáil out of office. That party may be unpopular (with women in particular if a leaked private poll is to be believed) but the polls show that its vote is holding up reasonably well. That may be because, as Harry McGee says in yesterday's Examiner:
Of course, there is a faux quality to a lot of the hollering that’s taking place at the moment. It’s happening in a vacuum. The only real event of any note is the Dáil returning next Wednesday. An election is at least a year away; and more likely 18 months away. As such, people have not focused their minds on what party they will give the nod to. There is a plausible argument that many are defaulting to Fianna Fáil, or hedging their bets, until the real decision has to be made.
He concludes his piece calling for something beyond mere platitudes about credible alternatives and to start showing some signs of solid policy direction. Sunday Times columnist Alan Ruddock argues that "it's time for Kenny and Rabbitte to show the vision thing" and demonstrates the customary scepticism most political punditry:
To win the public’s confidence, Kenny and Rabbitte will have to demonstrate that they and their teams have the vision to tackle the issues that spark animated debate — stealth taxes, high prices, the continued failure of public services — while also convincing voters that they can be trusted to preside over the economy. Their chances of success are limited, both by their ambition and by their ability to bring both parties with them. The real opportunity for recovery rests with the government parties. Fianna Fail’s support is at its core level, and is unlikely to fall much lower. Ahern, though he has taken a pummelling, remains the most popular leader in the country.
The pundits are right in that it will not be sufficient to wait for the government to foul up and lose the election by itself. People need to be given credible reasons for voting for an alternative. Otherwise we could end up with an election result that could produce a Dáil where the two rival party blocks have similar numbers and where Sinn Féin and various 'shop local' independents hold the balance of power. A bit like Germany at the moment - at least insofar as there is a pariah party in the chamber that no one wants to talk to, as the Backroom column in the Sunday Business Post would have it. One thing that is certain is that there'll be no grand coalition of the two largest parties!
the biggest stumbling block for the coalition is they have no leader. Kenny and rabbittee have no charisma at all and do not look or sound or act like leaders. Wheather or not they will be good leaders will matter less to the electorate then that.
Posted by: simon | September 25, 2005 at 11:15 PM