Nobody seems to believe that the Labour Party will choose to stay out of government with Fianna Fail if an alternative Rainbow doesn't win enough votes. The commentariat's consensus is that Fianna Fáil will lose a good few seats but maybe not enough to force the party out of office. Fianna Fáil will certainly lose votes because, as Joseph O'Malley explains in the Sunday Independent, the government it leads continues to have a diminished reputation for competence in the public mind. Good economic indicators will no longer be sufficient to save the Government, especially in the light of profligacy with taxpayer's money and the general "rip-off" fallout. All this, O'Malley contends, has created a huge pool of voters that could be attracted to a viable Rainbow alternative.
Vincent Browne, in his column in the Sunday Business Post, does a typical piece of post-election speculation. FF could get back with about 70 seats and FG and Lab would have about the same. There would be a dozen Shinners and a gansey load if independents. Under such circumstances, Browne confidently predicts, "Fianna Fáil would be likely to do a deal with Labour...". Pat Rabbitte "can fulminate all he likes but if the numbers stack up and there is no chance of Labour being in government other than with Fianna Fáil, things will change". Browne's certainty is based on the fact that no Irish political party has ever refused office for the sake of policy or (future) votes - see this previous post.
There is a report in today's Sunday Times of a survey of Labour Party members who are overwhelmingly said to reject compromise on policy in order to get into government. Obviously answering a political scientist's questionnaire is not the same as having to make a decision in the heat of a special post election conference but it may be an indication that rank-and-file members instinctively know about the strategic trade-offs that have to be made between office, policy and votes. Even if the party voted for coalition with Fianna Fáil as the only means of securing office I just can't see Rabbitte as Bertie Ahern's Tanaiste. I suspect that he at least would refuse office merely for the sake of it. Rabbitte genuinely believes that the removal of Fianna Fáil for at least two terms would be good for the body politic. This is a core principle for him and I just can't see how he could reconcile this with propping up the party in office. I'm sure that the likes of Brendan Howlin would be only too happy to step up to the plate in such an event.
Comments