Delusional republicanism

Sinn Féin has been busy launching its "make partition history " campaign, no doubt to underline its change of strategy away from armed struggle.  The party clearly believes it will reap a decommissioning dividend at the next election in the Republic.  While the party will probably double its representation at about 10% of the vote, a further breakthrough will be a very difficult prospect.  Sinn Féin in the Republic is a party of protest rather than of government.  Most electors down here vote for a government than vote to protest.  Well actually it's a bit more complicated than that as local factors intervene and many take advantage of the STV system to vote across party lines in favour of more strictly local representation. 

The average Irish voter neither votes on self-consciously ideological lines nor on the basis of a calculation of what kind of government formation would be in the said voter's economic interest.  Party identification has weakened quite a bit, to the detriment of the older established parties, in the last couple of decades but Sinn Féin would be foolish to think they sweep to power after a couple of elections - not least because they would face stiff competition from players who have been entrenched in the game for decades.  Newer parties can often find a niche in the existing system but rarely can they ever succeed in transforming the structure of the party system itself. 

There is no doubt that the leadership of Sinn Féin/IRA has been very skillful in persuading its base to abandon the core principle of no decommissioning without a murmur of protest.  The optimistic scenario in regard to the North is that they will enter government as virtually equal partners with the DUP sooner rather than later.  Entering any kind of coalition in the Republic is much further away.  Elements in Fianna Fáil might contemplate such an arrangement at some stage and there is a certain logic to such a pan-nationalist alliance.  Sinn Féin may have taken a tactical posture as an anti-establishment party of protest but their leaders will want to get their hands on the levers of power and would accordingly modify any policies that that may stand in the way of this. 

The shallow 'defenderism' of the Republican rank and file and the cynicism of its leadership was highlighted by Ed Moloney in yesterday's Sunday Independent. 

If the Provos' supporters have shallow political beliefs, then those of their leaders, to judge by the record of the last 30 years, are non-existent or, to be more accurate, they have been embraced and discarded according to fashion and self-interest and not shaped by principle. In this reporter's years of writing about the IRA and Sinn Fein, the Provo leadership has travelled virtually the entire length of the political spectrum - from flirting with Trotskyism to closing down hospitals and privatising school-building; from long hair and beards to smart suits and whitened teeth; from killing businessmen to courting them; from a socialist republic to a power-sharing Stormont. The only constant in this saga is that positions were taken, stances were adopted because they furthered the search for power, not to impose some secret agenda but simply for power's sake. In that sense, the Provo leadership are no different, and pose no greater threat to the South should they achieve power than many another politician in the Dail.

Sinn Féin will face an entirely different set of obstacles in its bid for power in the Republic.  It will have to operate in a mature democracy and a highly competitive party system with all the disadvantages of the latecomer trying to break into any market.  Irish politics is also very personalistic in many respects and so many high calibre, driven candidates will need to be found -  not so easy to come by if their current Dáil squad is anything to go by.  Sinn Féin have easily climbed the low lying foothills of the Republic's electoral politics but I suspect they will stay on the current plateau for the foreseeable future.

Comments

[simon]

Interesting points made. Will Sinn Fein capture the minds of the people on a national stage rather then in small localised pockets. I don't know but they are excellent at re-invention without looking oppertunist

[jaysus chris]

You have a great site.

[alexia]

I'm really keen this site. Interesting reference to Ed's article.