Fianna Fáil is one of the most electorally successful parties in any democracy and this ability to win elections is in no small part due to its populism. There are different elements that make up the populist character of the party - its nationalism, its cross-class appeal, superior levels of grass roots organisation and its ability to work clientelism and patronage to its advantage. While FF has suffered from declining party identification in the electorate, its relative decline has been less than that of its principal opponent Fine Gael.
At the weekend Ard Fheis Fianna Fáil was doing its best to position itself, amidst the distraction of Liam Lawlor's death in Moscow, to win a third election under Bertie Ahern. Reclaiming the symbols of nationalism from Sinn Féin is part of this process. It's not just about dealing with the electoral threat from Sinn Féin, with whom Ahern has insisted he will not go into coalition. Part of the long term dominance of FF was due to its successful incorporation of national symbols, such as the colours of the flag and the harp, into the party's very identity. In a party system where nationalism formed the primary basis of competition, the more nationalist FF was more consistently successful. Rhetorically, FF refer to itself as a national movement rather then a mere party.
More recently Fianna Fáil has relied more on the techniques of political marketing and media handling rather than its grass roots organisation to appeal to the electorate. It is reasonably established that the party uses focus groups to test out a range of policy positions. Brian Dowling in the Irish Independent says that Ahern's remarks at the weekend indicate that the government is gearing up for a "populist" budget to get them out of the political doldrums. It appears that tax credits may again be index-linked, providing a real increase in take-home pay especially to those on lower salaries.
These tax cuts may be combined with some tax increases for the wealthy. Brian Cowen has said that his budget would include measures to ensure everyone paid their fair share in taxes.
It is unacceptable to me that some of the wealthiest residents in Irish society should use property and other tax incentives to avoid paying any income tax while at the same time enjoying the services provided by the State.
At the same time Bertie Ahern made it clear on The Political Party on TV3 that he would not be in favour of increasing corporation tax or capital gains tax. So he's not exactly taking huge political risks here. Putting a cap on personal tax allowances won't cost too many votes. But promising tax cuts for ordinary working people and their families, combined with promised reform of the public service, will enable FF to become a little bit more populist. At the same time Ahern's legendary caution means that it's a conservative and incremental populism. It might be enough to scrape back home if the opposition parties don't start to develop attractive policy positions themselves. Fianna Fáil will start to recover in the polls and it won't be enough to just wait until the government loses the election before the campaign starts.
True. Fine Gael Labour seriously need to put policies out the policy of We are not Fianna Fail is just not going to work.
Posted by: simon | October 25, 2005 at 12:12 AM