The Sunday Independent ran a poll showing that only 55 per cent believe Bertie Ahern when he says he will not try to form a government with Sinn Féin after the next election. As is usual, there are a few op-ed pieces on the coalition theme. The content of these pieces are speculative and in any case fall into what may be termed 'horse race' coverage. John Drennan tells us what Bertie's real message is which is based on what Drennan thinks Ahern really means. It's a sweeping piece replete with big generalisations about "middle Ireland" and the message is that if you're worried about Sinn Féin in coalition, then don't voter for them.
A more sober and less florid article by Joseph O'Malley concludes that both the party's past and its current policies would seem to rule out Sinn Féin as a coalition partner with Fianna Fáil. O'Malley says that Fianna Fáil's vehement rejection of Sinn Féin as potential partners has denied it a valuable political lifeline:
Sinn Fein, to be taken seriously, has to present itself as a serious player and therefore as a party ready and willing to enter government, which is likely to be accepted in some quarter. If the party were to adopt an anti-coalition stance, then a vote for Sinn Fein would be seen as a wasted vote.
Note the unquestioned assumption that seriousness in the political process equates with being coalitionable. There could be no other reason for existence than office seeking at any conceivable opportunity. A party wouldn't, for instance, ever be trying to strengthen its position with a segment of the electorate to pursue a policy agenda, would it? In some ways its a measure of how conventional Sinn Féin is that it does not seek to challenge this dominant view of the imperatives of winning office at all costs.
Meanwhile, the one piece I did see in the sunday papers that looked at the coaltition debate in terms of policy was written by Frank Fitzgibbon in the Sunday Times. He at least grasped the significance of Enda Kenny's clear rejection of anything but a low-tax policy - "confirmation of the serious fault lines that have developed in the relationship between Fine Gael and Labour, the main partners in what we are led to believe is the alternative government". I don't agree with Fitzgibbon's free market nostrums but at least he took us away from the horse race.
I believe that Fianna Fáil really do want power more than anything else, but they've got to be smart enough to know that people would never look at them the same again if they went to bed with Sinn Féin. From a purely selfish point of view, it's in their interest to reject Sinn Féin under all circumstances, even if it means losing out to a Fine Gael/ Labour coalition. If they teamed up with Sinn Féin they would never be forgiven. It would affect their electoral success for generations.
Posted by: wulfbeorn | November 23, 2005 at 09:52 PM