When I first read saw the headline "Ahern's secret plan may oust Rabbitte" in the Sunday Independent, I thought it was the usual fanciful, speculative and insubstantial horse race punditry that is the staple of the Sunday papers. Reading the piece, which speculates about Labour being open to a post election coalition with Fianna Fáil that would involve the ouster of Rabbitte, I reckoned that whatever clever backroom operative that penned the document must have overdosed on too many episodes of West Wing. But further consideration of the article leads me to believe that there might be something in it.
Some months ago I posted about how parties have to make strategic trade offs between office, policy and votes and made the following point:
Even if the party voted for coalition with Fianna Fáil as the only means of securing office I just can't see Rabbitte as Bertie Ahern's Tanaiste. I suspect that he at least would refuse office merely for the sake of it. Rabbitte genuinely believes that the removal of Fianna Fáil for at least two terms would be good for the body politic. This is a core principle for him and I just can't see how he could reconcile this with propping up the party in office. I'm sure that the likes of Brendan Howlin would be only too happy to step up to the plate in such an event.
The most benign interpretation of Rabbitte's strategy is that it attempts to induce a certain clarity of choice for the voters in that they would have a clear alternative to the present government. This clarity of choice is not easy to generate in fragmented multi-party systems, where post election outcomes are in practise less clear cut, and this leaked document will deliberately help Rabbitte's opponents in the party as it outlines certain scenarios that leave the leadership in a weak position:
There is now a belief that Rabbitte's policy of excluding FF in any government plan is placing undue importance on SF's results after the GE. SF is a minor party. However, there is a growing perception that Rabbitte's strategy is unduly, and erroneously, casting Sinn Fein in the role of 'king-maker'. By excluding FF, it has also restricted the public choice in the next GE. In that context it can be perceived to be undemocratic.
Labour is flat-lining in the polls at around 13 percent. Frankly I had hoped for better by this stage and that Labour would be the most dynamic element of the rainbow alternative. I made the point recently that the party appears to have lost the initiative on taxation policy. The document highlights other areas that would cause unease in the party, notably an intentional policy focus on the ABC1 demographic has cost working-class support, especially outside Dublin, a failure to build up party organisation in constituencies where Labour lost seats to SF in the last election and where none of those seats will be regained, and an electoral strategy with FG, which will result in Labour losing seats directly to Fine Gael, especially in Dublin.
Again, there is enough truth in some of this analysis to give comfort to those in Labour who want to have a more flexible post election strategy. Ruling out coalition with Fianna Fáil is a valid political strategy going into an election but it's beginning to look risky for Rabbitte. Then again I still believe that removal of Fianna Fáil is a core principle for him. I just wish that more radical initiatives had been taken in terms of policy and organisational development.
Update - According to the Irish Independent this morning the Labour leader has rejected suggestions in an internal FF strategy document that TDs in his party is opposed to his policy of ruling out going into government with FF. High-ranking members of FF believe Labour - without Mr Rabbitte as leader - is still open to forming a coalition government. Mr Rabbitte said the purpose of the document was to convince the public FF will be forced to bring Sinn Fein into government because of his "obstinacy". "What Fianna Fail has achieved here to re-open the door to Sinn Fein participation in government, while attempting to blame Pat Rabbitte for this," he said. Details of the strategy document were revealed yesterday in a Sunday newspaper. Describing the contents of the document as an effort to promote Fianna Fail's campaign to retain power after the general election, Rabbitte is quoted as saying that it was merely "wishful thinking" on Fianna Fail's part. "The document was intended to convey the message that 'only Pat Rabbitte stands in the way of an FF/Labour government'. This is wishful thinking, and it is unfortunate for the Fianna Fail propagandists that its publication coincides with an opinion poll showing 83pc support among Labour Party supporters for my leadership and electoral strategy".
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