Labour and the Focus Groups

The Sunday Tribune (no link available) yesterday carried a report from Public Affairs Correspondent Kevin Rafter on the results of some focus groups commissioned by the Labour Party.  They were held late last year in five constituencies - Dublin South, Dublin West, Cork South Central and Meath East.  The participants were potential Labour switchers and aged between 20 and 40.  The research was meant to unearth key "barriers and triggers" to voting Labour.

According to the research, Labour figures were "described as academics; were perceived to be principled but  unpolished; to be skilled at parliamentary debate but  untried in the realm of legislating and managing a national economy...The key barrier which emerged towards voting for the Labour Party was a nervousness about its ability to manage the national economy, with a perceived lack of experience and, for a minority, associations with the trade unions.

Key triggers to voting Labour were, unsurprisingly, areas like the health services.  Also the party was seen as "destructive rather than constructive-tearing down government policies rather than putting forward alternative strategies".  Overall reaction seems mildly positive among the target group of switchers but not hugely enthusiastic.  There are worries about economic management but Labour has yet to develop an alternative narrative that gets across a distinctive position.

The most positive way the party leadership can interpret the findings is the fact that there is no systematic, widespread hesitation in voting Labour - at least among that section of the electorate that were represented in the focus groups.  A lack of enthusiasm is one thing but the party's potential electorate could be reached with the right messages.  The key message would have to be on the economy and the party would have to be prepared to take a slight risk and break with elements of the economic consensus the party has so far cleaved towards. 

Presumably there could be something on the lines of ensuring its long term sustainability by infrastructural provision through capital investment.  Also to show how social provision is important for long term economic prosperity in terms of making the workforce secure.  Labour must convince people that an unequal society is an unhealthy one.  The reality for a lot of the electorate, especially where you would be likely to find potential Labour switchers, is that economic prosperity coexists alongside chronic insecurity.   This runs the risk of unsettling some people about the nature of the current boom; to quote one female participant in one of the groups - "What if it all falls to pieces? We're keeping our heads above water, would that be all lost.  What could be worse?" 

The challenge is to come up with policies that might unsettle people to the extent that they will become dissatisfied with government complacency.  Current prosperity is excessively dependent on continued consumer spending and an over heated construction sector.  How sustainable is that in the long run?  How do we ensure that the infrastructure is in place to avoid all manner of supply-side bottlenecks?  How do we make sure that a flexible labour market is combined with policies that will ensure opportunities for workers who need to re-skill and re-educate themselves in the light of new challenges and opportunities?  Answers to some of these questions may just convince enough of those potential switchers to actually vote Labour.

Comments

[James]

The only time Labour have managed the economy was 1992-1997 (with Quinn first in Enterprise & Employment & then in Finance). They did a pretty good job, including creating the growth & stability pact for the euro (done while Ireland had the presidency of the EU). Perhaps reminding people of that would help the economic fears.
Marc Coleman in the Irish Times today also writes about how the cyclical "election economics" wasn't there during the Rainbow Coalition - naivete, good economic management or bad politics? Who knows...

[kevin rafter]

For details on Labour's focus group research go to www.kevinrafter.com