The Sunday Business Post has announced that it is to have monthly tracking polls between now and the next election. These polls will "measure voting intentions at short and regular intervals allowing readers to build up a more comprehensive picture of the effects of current events on political support". And in case you think this is all about the 'horse race' voters will be "asked about the issues they care about, their feelings on the economy, who they want to lead the country, and other choices that they'll face next year".
Today's poll shows Fianna Fáil picking up a few points at Fine Gael's expense. There's no surprise there given a favourable budget and government domination of the news cycle when the Dáil is on a long break. What's more significant is that the government has improved on its reputation for economic management at the expense of the Fine Gael-Labour alternative. This contrasts to the position this time last year when the government's numbers were in free fall. Then there is the fact that 50 per cent of people believe that the Fine Gael-Labour alternative would make no difference. Give the fact that the opposition have no plausible alternative narrative on how the economy should be managed, reformed, sustained this is no surprise at all.
The figures indicate that the next election is a toss up. Even with Fianna Fáil recovering to 37 per cent, they'd still lose about 15 seats. Pat Leahy points out that "the graphs for consumer confidence (published monthly) and for government satisfaction (in newspaper opinion polls) are almost exactly the same shape in the lifetime of the present government". Last year Eddie Hobbs and his Rip-off Republic severely dented both consumer confidence and government support in the polls. There's many a banana skin ahead that could have the same effect over the coming months.
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