Political Parties and Issue Voting

Stephen Collins in yesterday's Irish Times remarked that "the decision of the PDs to go back to the well for more tax-cutting policies suggests a belief that a significant number of voters out there are still in the market for more cuts".  This raises the question to what extent individual voters make their political choices on the basis of policy.  Classic voting behaviour theory has it that voters assess politicians on the basis of their positions on the issues of the day and choose the options presented by parties and candidates that best suit their preferences or interests.  Such a view fits with most people's common sense beliefs about the democratic process.  Most empirical studies of elections undertaken by political scientists tend to discount the view that opinions about policy issues have much influence over voting decisions and instead emphasise factors such as party identification and the general impression evoked by parties and candidates in the course of a largely media-centred campaign. 

Policy issues are still important in determining the outcome of elections but not in a way that assumes that the voter is looking around the electoral marketplace for the party that offers the best slate of policies that accords with with his/her economic interests and/or ideological preferences.  The Irish electoral system allows people to vote on the basis of parties or candidates or some combination of both, which is why we get a lot of voting across party lines and why local factors are so important.  Survey data has consistently shown that over half of respondents say that the fundamental factor in deciding how to vote was choosing the best local candidate.  Party identification is still in voting behaviour even in an era of partisan dealignment and voter volatility. 

We are fortunate because we know a little more than we used to about what elections are about and about how to explain voter choice.  Thanks to the How Ireland Voted series of books that have appeared after every election since 1987, Irish political scientists continue to produce informative information and analysis on the peculiar dynamics of Irish voting behaviour.  If anyone was to embark on some informed speculation about the next election then How Ireland Voted 2002 is essential reading.  We now also have the Irish Election Study 2002. 

One of the key findings to emerge from the study of the last election was that while policy issues were important and had an impact on voting decision in various ways, no party captured the big issues for themselves.  Perhaps this reflects the dominance of the two centrist 'catch-all' parties of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and the concomitant lack of an ideological thrust to party competition.  Policy issues like health are much talked about in the course of a campaign but the salience of such an issue is not strongly linked to support for any particular party to have a decisive influence on the electoral outcome by itself.  As the PDs ponder their future in Limerick this weekend and set their face against a pre-election pact with Fianna Fáil, it would seem that the party is quite definite about making the low tax issue uniquely its own.  Polling evidence would not seem to indicate that the issue resonates much with the public.  That mightn't matter as the PDs are a niche party.  It could also be the case that support for tax cuts is understated in opinion polls.

Comments

[simon]

Ya tax cuts are interesting. Most of the reaction to eddie hobbs program was the stealth taxes

[Pastor of Muppets]

"Polling evidence would not seem to indicate that the issue resonates much with the public. That mightn't matter as the PDs are a niche party. It could also be the case that support for tax cuts is understated in opinion polls."

I wouldn't trust an opinion poll too much, particularly when it comes to taxes: as you said, support for tax cuts are generally underestimated. I think what is probably happening is that when people are asked which policies they support for an opinion poll, they will claim 'community' issues such as health and education over 'selfish' interests such as tax cuts, just to keep up appearances. It's no coincidence that Tory support is frequently understated in British polls!