The Murky Realism of Dáil Politics

There's a typical, speculative piece of horse race type punditry in this morning's Examiner.  The article has a certain undertone of weary cynicism as Shaun Connolly, the paper's political correspondent, takes us through the usual coalition scenarios that might happen after the next election.  Connolly says that the whispered phrase that echoes through the corridors of Leinster House is that “it’s all about how the numbers fall” and because of this we have to look beyond the overt, stated positions of the parties.

The fact that by the next election Fianna Fáil will have been in office for eighteen out of the last twenty years and, as Connolly rightly remarks, this makes them "the most ruthlessly efficient re-election machine in Western Europe and one unlikely to relinquish power easily".  Hence "the overt pursuit of Labour and covert preparation for an accommodation with Sinn Féin".  The Examiner also has a piece claiming that "Labour leader Pat Rabbitte has refused to categorically rule out a coalition with Fianna Fáil after the next election, in an apparent softening of his previous hardline stance".  There are a few quotes from Rabbitte in a forthcoming interview with Magill where he seemingly refused to give a yes or no answer to a coalition with FF. 

Maybe politicians are reluctant by nature to give a completely unequivocal answer to that kind of question.  In his article Connolly points out that "the average age of Labour TDs will be 59 when the hustings roll around again and the Taoiseach is hoping if they face the choice of tasting power for maybe only six months in a rag-bag blue/red/green coalition, or being assured of four or five years in power with Fianna Fáil, they may well be tempted to rebel against their leader".  There are about half a dozen or so realistic prospects that may bring the average age of the PLP down a bit in the next Dáil but for many the next election is their last chance to hold office before retirement.  No wonder we have a risk-averse opposition!

Comments

[Simone]

`The piece in today's Examiner is pretty much akin to the dire state of our own political forum here in Ireland. Much could be said about Rabbite's 'people who think Labour should vote Labour' on the surface it's a reasonable motto but the populas is uninterested when it comes down to the tally.