The Sunday Business Post has published another of its monthly tracking polls. It shows a five per cent surge in support for Fianna Fáil, up to 38%, and a corresponding drop of 2% and 3% for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin respectively. The numbers confirm the trend that FF does better when the Dáil isn't sitting. It seems that there was a certain level of good will towards the party generated by the anniversary celebrations held over Easter. The fact that FF has clawed back 3% from Sinn Féin will give them considerable satisfaction. Expect more of the same next year, a long St. Patrick's day/Easter recess and an election in May.
There is ample evidence of voter volatility and a swing vote, particularly in the 18-35 bracket, that could decide the election is up for grabs by the two competing blocks. On the evidence of the last three polls neither the present government nor the Fine Gael-Labour alternative can win. The fact that Fianna Fáil is capable of attracting back some of the losses registered by the previous couple of polls indicates that the electorate is far from convinced that the opposition provides a credible alternative. Labour will be disappointed that it got no boost from its annual conference and is still flat-lining on 11%. Fine Gael, while healthier than at a comparable stage before the 2002 election, has still to make a strong impression in terms of policy, personnel and direction. It is likely to make law and order the centrepiece of its conference next weekend.
It's very hard to get a sense of what the three larger parties really stand for. Fianna Fáil can get away with this more successfully than its rivals. If there are doubts about the opposition, then voters can drift back to the government. As for FG and Labour, I've pointed out before the perils of such risk-averse opposition. The smaller parties have more definite brand images and this can help them. The Progressive Democrats are deliberately hailing the "coping classes" of "middle Ireland" with their tax cuts. The Greens are doing well on 7% in today's poll, following a period of oil price hikes that have given rise to much media discussion on alternative sources of energy. And Sinn Féin continues to pose as the only untainted party of the left (although see Jim Cusack today in the Sunday Independent showing how the parties policies change somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean). The larger parties should take heed of John Drennan's wise comment, again in the Indo, that "in politics excesses of caution can be as risky as the bold step".
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