The new latest monthly tracking poll in today's Sunday Business Post shows that the governing coalition may now lose the election. No guarantees of course, after all a poll is not a prediction, merely a snapshot of opinion at a certain moment in time. (Yes we know all that, get on with it - ed.). What emerges with a certain level of clarity is that Fianna Fáil are now in the territory where 15 to 20 seats could be lost. No wonder the backbenchers are getting restless. They can pretend all they like that the recent discontent was about lack of input in relation to policy matters but when governments decline to a certain level of popularity, these TDs realise that no matter what efforts they make at a local constituency level they could still lose anyway. Internal party spats like we witnessed in both coalition parties recently are typical, Joseph O'Malley observes, of "what happens when a coalition starts to crack up".
Fine Gael must be pleased that they have consolidated their recent gains and are likely to head into the campaign proper with a support in the high twenties. Labour, on the other hand, is still stuck on a plateau of 12 per cent and don't look to be capable of raising their game, to lazily mix my metaphors. It's very disappointing that at a time when more and more people are slipping into zones of insecurity caused by a uneven economic development, chronically inadequate levels of social provision, and spiralling levels of personal debt, that the party seems incapable of communicating a message that addresses such concerns. The Greens are now showing support at around 3 per cent higher than their result in 2002 and, if they work well in a few constituencies where they're in with a shout, could win an extra seat or two. So in a Rainbow coalition the momentum in terms of policy and direction would be with Fine Gael and the Greens as both parties would have contributed the most to putting the FF/PD coalition out of office.
Comments