The Indispensable Party

Bertie Ahern's interview with the Irish Independent is all about framing the election contest in terms of who will be Fianna Fáil's partner in government after the votes are counted.  His own personal preference is for a continuation of the present coalition but, being a good democrat, he is prepared to leave the composition of the next government in the hands of the people. Ahern said it would be "arrogant" for any party to dictate to the electorate which combination of parties should constitute the next Government.  We are assured that Bertie has "no ideological hangups" about a coalition with Labour, pointing to the generous social policy measures in the last budget.   "It is up to the Irish people to decide the election outcome and I will negotiate on the basis of the results". 

This appeal over the head of Pat Rabbitte to ordinary Labour voters that 'no' shouldn't really mean 'no', is more than likely based on polling numbers and focus group results that show that a Fianna Fáil/Labour combination could be popular.  But even in the absence of such figures it makes very good sense for Fianna Fáil to strategically position itself as the indispensable party of government and that the election be reduced to who will make up the numbers with them.  This is exactly what happened in 2002.

It will be much more difficult to pull it off this time.  Fine Gael is not the basket case it was last time out and Labour was also much more equivocal in its stance.  So it might be a tighter race but Fianna Fáil must be slightly favoured to retain office.  A putative FF/Labour alliance is now on the table and no commentator will be able to resist looking at it regardless of the official alignment of parties at the start of the actual campaign.  This is hardly surprising in that there is really nothing to divide the Rainbow and the current coalition in terms of policy fundamentals or have I missed something?  As usual attention will be on the horse race. 

Comments

[Luke Mc]

There may not be anything dividing the Rainbow and FF/PD in terms of fundamentals now, but my preferred Rainbow of FG/Lab/GP would have a seriously different agenda to the current administration. Providing public service in the best way possible vs the ideology of privatisation, Serious action on climate change & the environment vs Head in the sands free marketeering, and a real attempt to tackle the developer/landowner/politician
axis being three obvious areas that spring to mind. Bring on the election!

[Niall]

There is a clear and simple response to Bertie's spin - Labour will reconsider the position when they have a party leader who is not wedded to the corrupt, whether in the past through links to Haughey or in the present to their builder friends such as the Bailey's. The worst response is nothing, which leaves the matter open. However, we must await the final figures. However a scattered electorate with say 10 seats each for the Greens & the Provos leaves it all too open. But the musings of Ahern's should be openly challanged.

[Seamus Ryan]

Gerry, It seems to me that Bertie's appeal to Labour Party members should be taken with a grain of salt. I have no doubt that when Sinn Fein sign up for policing in the North that he will then keep the door slightly ajar for Sinn Fein also. At the end of the day it is the members of the Labour Party that will decide what position the party will take, if that situation arises.