Statistical analysis is not my strong point and the discrepancy between Garda figures and those reported by the Burden of Crime in Europe survey is a puzzle. The survey found that 22.1 per cent of Irish people said they fell victim to common crimes such as assault, robbery or theft in 2004. This was the highest response recorded in the 18 EU states surveyed by international polling company Gallup. On the other hand Garda figures suggest one in 40 Irish people was a victim of crime compared to one in five in the Gallup poll.
I can only conclude that there has to be something wrong with the official Garda figures. Although the survey figures place Ireland well above the EU average of 14.8 per cent, the fact that there are some other countries that are not all that far behind such as Britain (21 per cent), Estonia (20.2 per cent), the Netherlands (19.8 per cent) and Denmark (19.3 per cent) indicates that Ireland is not a 'deviant case', statistically speaking. An official spokeswoman at the Department of Justice has questioned the small size of the sample but Gallup stand by their figures, noting that a second survey taken six months later confirmed them. Labour argue that what is needed is "an independent crime bureau to compile figures on a household survey basis, not on the sterile basis of reported crime".
In the UK there are two key sources of data that provide information about Crime. These are the British Crime Survey (BCS) and Police-recorded crime figures. According to the Home Office these are a complementary series that together provide a better picture of crime than could be obtained from either series alone. We should adopt the BCS model here. There are differences between the what the police report and what the survey shows. According to the BCS survey for England and Wales for 2005-2006 there were approximately 10.9 million crimes against adults living in private households in England and Wales, as against against 5.6 million crimes reported by the English and Welsh police.
But the Home Office don't rubbish the BCS figures and claim that the police figures provide the truer picture. Instead it is argued that Police recorded crime figures provide a measure of well-reported crimes, and are an important indicator of police workload. They can also be used for local crime pattern analysis; however they often under-estimate petty offences which go unreported and sexual and domestic crimes. In any case the difference between one in forty and one in five speaks for itself.
Quite why Ireland is at the top of the EU league for criminality remains a matter of conjecture, for me at any rate. Could our proximity to the UK in terms of a common and shared media culture have something to do with the fact that the crime rates are similar? Presumably what counts as a crime and what should be reported to the police as a crime, is at least partly a matter of cultural conditioning. If anyone has some useful information on any of this I'd be obliged if they'd pass it on.
I don't have any useful information but the head of the survey group was interviewed on Prime Time last night and he suggested that often rising crime is associated with rising prosperity, which could account for why Ireland is so close to The Netherlands, Denmark and Britian, although I'm not sure if that theory works with Estonia.
Posted by: Donagh | February 07, 2007 at 11:02 AM
Thanks Donagh, I didn't see Prime Time last night. I'll look at it later.
Posted by: Gerry | February 07, 2007 at 11:30 AM
Gerry and Donagh: the ‘Highlights and Policy Implications’ published to accompany this survey are quite informative.
On self-reporting to interviewers vs. reporting to the Gardai, the figures vary little across the EU: around 60% of serious crimes are reported to the police (with under-reporting obviously especially marked in cases of sexual assault and/or domestic violence).
Interestingly, Ireland is among the countries where crime victims rate their treatment by police most favourably.
On causes of crime, the authors note that:
“The most common factors associated with high levels of crime are urbanization and the proportion of young people in the population.”
This accords with the views of criminalogists such as Paul O’Mahony (see his Crime and Punishment in Ireland, 1995): young men, in particular, are disproportionately likely to be both the perpetrators and victims of crime - one reason why our crime rates were relatively low when emigration was high.
Finally – yes, something along the lines of the UK’s British Crime Survey would be extremely useful.
Posted by: Alex | February 07, 2007 at 01:00 PM